Did UK-Met get already in a 21 pages long analysis (September 2015) the first sentence wrong, by saying:

“The Earth’s global average surface climate is primarily determined by the exchange of energy between the atmosphere, the oceans and space”.
One may say that without being wrong, but it disguises the real dimensions over longer periods of time (climate), because the bulk of energy exchange is between oceans and space. Average surface temperatures depend highly on ocean heat storage and heat release.

The analysis confirm it by attributing any possible changes to the current status of El Niño, PDO, and AMO, not hesitating to conclude the report with a meaningless statement:
“ Further long-term global warming is expected over the coming decades but variations of climate worldwide from year to year or decade to decade will always depend on the subsequent variations in the patterns of climate variability described in this report.”

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/8/c/Changes_In_The_Climate_System.pdf