Joe Bastardi and Wim Röst on the right way –Although too slowly!
The powerhouse in global weather and climate – The Ocean.
Post 17. June 2018
Global warming haunts the general public for three decades. The vast majority of weather and climate scientists claim that human generated carbon dioxide (CO2) is warming the world and causing climate change since the 1980s. Fixed to this issue they are presumably the ultimate threat to a water planet as this earth. Any possible anthropogenic impact on the oceans and subsequently the weather and climate should be a major issue, which requires that all possible mechanism must be understood thoroughly. The current scientific community is fixed on the atmosphere, including sun and volcanoes, but considers the sea too remotely. That is dangerous! The oceans-govern-climate!
It is extremely rare to hear a voice that emphasizes the connection between water and climate as a prerequisite for understanding climate changes. In a recent post concerning fundamental climatic changes over geological periods WIM RÖST (WUWT – 15.June) asserts that all changes were due to water, which determines the ‘General Background Temperature’ for the Earth, resulting in Hothouse and Ice House Climate States. Interesting is his assessment that “the temperature of the deep ocean is the main factor. Deep-ocean temperatures from -1 to +3 degrees Celsius, as we have now, keep the Earth in an Ice House State. Slightly warmer deep-oceans with temperatures from 6 to 10 degrees Celsius* bring the Earth to a Warm House or a Hot House Climate State.”
Well, what is the number one source of thermal energy on the planet, with 99.9%? The oceans. What is the prime source of water vapor (and arguably CO2)? The oceans.
Joe Bastardi, highly skeptical of the relevance of CO2 assumes that: We are chasing the wrong thing in our attempt to quantify and understand the climate;
In so far we are fully on his side, but too narrow when merely questioning whether: Is the increase of CO2 warming the ocean because of the radiative properties? Or are the state of the oceans a product of many things, the sun a primary driver?
The question should instead be based on the current ocean structure and physical mechanism. What impacts have the various human marine activities from shipping, and fishing to off-shore installations? Any activity may warm or cool the sea surface, which immediate or long term impact on the state of the atmosphere. After all the sea-surface temperatures (SST) are only warm in a very thin layer, while the ocean total average is only about +4° Celsius. Was the global cooling from 1940 to 1970 caused by WWII? Screw driven vessels are likely to have contributed to warming the SST over more than 100 years. Sub-surface activities, as off shore industry, fishing and naval wars , affect the vertical temperature and salinity structure over considerable water depths. Neither Wim Röst nor Joe Bastardi have any clue about anthropogenic ocean change, although Wim Röst gets the general view right:
Oceans create ‘climate states’ and in the atmosphere, ‘weather’ is created by water vapor. (From last section of the post).