The other day Lomonosov Moscow State University got worldwide attention. By press release (16.July 2015) a new study was presented: “New Ice Age may begin by 2030”, assuming that: “The arrival of intense cold similar to the one raged during the “Little Ice Age”, which froze the world during the XVII century and in the beginning of the XVIII century, is expected in the years 2030–2040. “
The study claims it will be the sun. A new reduction of the solar activity will lead to reduction of the solar irradiance. Indeed, solar activity affects the climate. Without the sun ‘climate’ would not exist. But is that enough to rectify the assumption? Certainly not, sun radiation varies over periods and cycles, which will be reflected in temperatures variation, but never caused a significant climatic change event. For that water is needed, and earth has plenty of it. Not surprisingly, the article not even mentions the oceans. The oceans absorb, store, and release heat, which makes them the driver of climate. Their biggest potential to cause climate changes is the low temperature the entire water mass has, just about plus four degrees Celsius.
Competence in climate research does not go without the oceans. The LMSU study ignores the driver of the climate completely, while admitting: “However, only the time will show soon enough (within the next 5-15 years) if this will happen.” That is not very impressive.
(click on picture to enlarge)