Warm-Up 1918-1939 explained for Dr. Judith Curry and other
Posted : February 12, 2017 /Comments welcome / Source and Credit: “Arctic Warming 1919-1939”
In a previous post we praised Dr. Judith Curry for her recent statement that “……the models fail to simulate the observed warming between 1910 and 1940.” (Fig.1) Here is our explanation: the models fail because this warming is man-made due to naval war during World War One (WWI – 1914 to 1918), Fig. 2 & 3. Therefor we amplify it briefly for Curry and other, which hopefully raise awareness on how easy man can interfere into nature and initiate a climate change.
–1– Since the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) around 1850, the Northern Hemisphere (NH) became modestly warmer until the mid-1910s. Then suddenly, temperature dropped significantly in the Northern North Atlantic (Fram Strait, Spitsbergen) since 1914 (Fig. 6, 7, 8), but exploded after 1917 until 1920, and continued to rise across the Northern Hemisphere, in North America up to 1933, until World War II commenced in September 1939. This dramatic climate shift has evidently – prima facie – a lot to do with four years war at sea that mainly took place around Great Britain (GB), and sea areas influenced by the Atlantic Gulf Current off GB.
–2– All water around Great Britain ends up in Arctic Ocean (Fig. 2 & 3), most passing Spitsbergen/Svalbard in the West,
and a smaller part via the Barents Sea.
–3— The northern branch of the Gulf Current, which has a thickness of up to few hundred meters transvers northwards as Norwegian- and West-Spitsbergen Current. The water is warm and has a high salinity. In contrast the Norwegian Sea Basin (mean depth 1740m) is colder and higher saline, as a varying sea surface level of several dozen meters, which is colder and due to rain and runoff significantly less saline. That forms a very complex environment, which was severely thrown out of its common structure. The atmosphere reacted instantly, Fig. 6, 7 & 8.
–4— Actually naval war reached a very destructive dimensions only in autumn 1916, by new weaponry, mass production, and trained personnel. Over many months German U-Boats sunk 10 and more vessels every day. Nature reacted immediately, for example:
aa) Winter 1916/17 became the third coldest in Great Britain in the 20th Century;
bb) Air temperature at Spitsbergen dropped to a low level since a dozen years (Fig. 6). Remarkable is the big difference between summer and winter (Fig. 8), indicating that substantial changes within the upper sea levels took place, and any influence of sun-ray variation is neclectable
cc) The sea ice extend in the North Atlantic was the most sever in summer 1917, at least since about 1900 (more details HERE).
dd) A significant rise in summer air temperature at Spitsbergen was already observed in 1918 (Details book Ch. 5/E, p.60)
ee) At Spitsbergen the annual temperature increased within four years by about 7°C between 1917 and 1920, Fig. 7 (and between 1st-Quarter (D/J/F) 1917 and 1922 about 14°C ; see Fig. 6), continue to rise thereon and affecting subsequently the NH. (Fig. 1)
ff) That the warming of North America ceased around 1933, is a strong indication for a very sudden temporary push in the Atlantic section of the Arctic Ocean (see Fig. 1 & 4)
More details and a full picture is see book Chapter 8 “Caused Naval War the Arctic Warming?” HERE.
NEXT post by 18th Feb. is about man-made global cooling from autumn 1939 to about 1975.